New England Patriots: A+
Key Signings: CB Darrelle Revis, CB Brandon Browner, WR Brandon LaFell, WR Julian Edelman (re-signed), C Ryan Wendell (re-signed) Key Losses: CB Aqib Talib, LB Brandon Spikes, RB LeGarrette Blount The Patriots had an outstanding offseason. They upgraded the cornerback position by signing the best cornerback in football in Darrelle Revis. They continued to add to their secondary by adding Brandon Browner. Adding those two cornerbacks and holding onto Vince Wilfork could give Bill Belichick the best defense he has seen in New England. While Spikes was a very good run stopper, Dont’a Hightower can step into the middle linebacker role as the run stopper and Jaime Collins will play the role of coverage linebacker, a great upgrade from Hightower and his coverage skills, or lack there of. Bringing back Edelman is almost as important as signing Revis. It would have been cruel to take Brady’s favorite target away from him for a second consecutive year. LaFell, while most of his snaps came in the slot last year, has the size and speed to play on the outside. Miami Dolphins: A Key Signings: LT Branden Albert, DL Earl Mitchell, G Shelley Smith, DT Randy Starks, CB Cortland Finnegan, RB Knowshon Moreno, CB Brent Grimes (re-signed) Key Losses: T Jonathan Martin, G Richie Incognito, CB Nolan Carroll, DT Paul Soliai The Dolphins needed to upgrade their offensive line. Everybody knew that. They landed the best tackle on the free agent market in Branden Albert as well as adding guard Shelley Smith. Not only were the Dolphins able to hold onto Grimes, they upgraded the position that Nolan Carroll filled with Cortland Finnegan. He may not be what he once was, but he is still a better player than Carroll. Moreno brings a veteran presence to a backfield that was very disappointing in 2013. At only $3 million for one year, this was a smart signing for the Fins. New York Jets: C Key Additions: WR Eric Decker, QB Michael Vick, T Breno Giacomini, OL Willie Colon (re-signed), OLB Calvin Pace (re-signed), K Nick Folk (re-signed) Key Losses: T Austin Howard, CB Antonio Cromartie, S Ed Reed, TE Kellen Winslow, QB Mark Sanchez The Jets overpaid for Decker; I guess that’s what you have to do to get somebody half decent to come to the Jets. He is a number two that was paid like a number one. Michael Vick does not make a lot of sense. The Jets should commit to Geno Smith, but this signing does not seem to do so. Was he brought in just to provide some competition for Smith? Mark Sanchez was not really a key loss. That was probably the best move the Jets made this offseason. Antonio Cromartie is a legitimate loss, however. They Jets are going to have to seriously rely on second year cornerback Dee Milliner to take a giant step forward. Buffalo Bills: D Key Signings: G Chris Williams, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Corey Graham, LB Keith Rivers, TE Scott Chandler (re-signed) Key Losses: FS Jairus Byrd, QB Kevin Kolb The Bills did not do a hell of a lot in free agency. Spikes is a good linebacker and definitely helps them against the run. However, other than that, they did not do much. Jairus Byrd, before Revis was cut, was the best free agent available. He left for the Saints and leaves the Bills much weaker in the secondary. There is not really much to say about the Bills’ offseason. It was boring and disappointing for Bills fans.
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Yes, many leagues have already drafted for the 2014 season. However, if you have not, these are some guys you should avoid, either completely, or at least at their current draft posit (Disclaimer: Not all of these players are "busts" per say; however, they should be taken later than their current average draft position.) Catcher: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants Posey is the best catcher available; I will not argue that he is not. However, he is not worth of his current average draft position; he is going in/around the fourth round. While he is a very good hitting catcher, there are still better hitters available in the fourth round and catchers who are very good options very late in the draft. First Base: Chris David, Baltimore Orioles The first half of the season, Davis hit .315 with 37 home runs. After the All-Star break, the slugger hit "only" 16 home runs to go along with a miserable .245 average. I am not saying that Davis is the player that he was the second half, but I also do not think he is the player that he was the first half. He will be somewhere in-between. There are other players who I deem as better options in the first round. Second Base: Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners Robinson Cano has only four home runs in 152 at bats at Safeco Field. It is not a hitter-friendly ballpark. While he is a great player who will absolutely help the Mariners be a little more relevant, his fantasy value takes a hit with his move to Seattle. Shortstop: Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers Segura, like Davis, had a spectacular first half of the season, but dropped off significantly in the second half. He hit only .241 with one home run and 17 stolen bases. The drop in power is no surprise; the 11 in first half was the real surprise. The average and steals are the concerning points. If Segura does not get on base, he cannot steal bases and his fantasy value goes down quite a bit if he loses steals and home runs. Third Base: Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates It's simple. He is career .235 hitter. No matter how many home runs he hits, the average is an absolute killer. If you draft him, make sure that the rest of your team is going to hit over .300 to pick up the slack. Outfield: Shane Victorino, Boston Red Sox Despite battling some injuries, Shane Victorino had a great bounce-back 2013 campaign. However, it is hard to believe that someone who had not hit over .280 will repeat his performance from last year. He is a good fourth fantasy outfielder, but not much more than that. Starting Pitcher: Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies I love Cliff Lee's stuff. If you don't, you're just wrong. He eats innings, strikes out a ton of batters, and walks a batter once every ten years. However, he is on the Phillies. It is a miracle he got 14 wins last year and he only has 20 wins the previous two years combined. While the other categories should be there, it is tough to take Lee while pitchers such as Adam Wainwright or Max Scherzer are available and should give you plenty of wins. Relief Pitcher: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He will have another phenomenal year. He is not worth of a fourth round pick. Do not pay for saves. Yes, he gets strikeouts, but the most he will contribute is three per night. There are plenty of other closers available later on who will be just fine and not have to be picked so early. 12 hours into free agency, fans of the New England Patriots were freaking out. Was it fair to criticize them so shortly after the start of free agency? No. Was it justifiable? Yeah, I think it was. For years now, we watch the Patriots pass on the best players available and instead sign a “value” player. Value players such as Steve Gregory, who was cut earlier in the offseason. However, this year, the Patriots would not disappoint.
After star cornerback Aqib Talib went to the rival Denver Broncos, fans started to fall into a deep depression. However, the next day Darrelle Revis came to New England singing Third Eye Blind’s “Jumper.” (I hope that line didn’t go over too many heads.) Just like that, we were all talking about the Lombardi Trophy coming back home. They weren’t done. The Patriots’ next target was former Seattle Seahawks cornerback Brandon Browner. After #FakeRevisSightings, Patriot fans were onto #BrownerWatch. Nobody knew where he was or what was going on for a few days; but in the end, the Patriots signed the 6’4” cornerback to a three-year deal. While he will sit out the first four games due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy, the Patriots have enough depth in the secondary to fill the spot and when he comes back, they could have the best secondary in football. The defense had been shored up. It was time to address quarterback Tom Brady’s toys. For a while, it looked as though Julian Edelman was going to get away from the Patriots. His departure would have left the Patriots with a gaping hole at wide receiver. Danny Amendola can never be relied on to stay healthy and, while I believe Aaron Dobson will show great improvement in year two, that is no guarantee. To lose Edelman would be to take away Brady’s top receiver for two consecutive years. To the delight of many, especially Brady, the Patriots re-signed Edelman. They also inked former Panther Brandon LaFell to a three-year deal. The Patriots are most likely done. They could bring in some depth players, but they will not make any more impact signings. Or so we think… Earlier this week, it was reported that the Patriots had inquired about Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson. Yes, that DeSean Jackson. Will the Patriots make a play for Jackson? Doubtful. As dangerous as he would be in the New England offense, Jackson will not be a Patriot. He has said he will not renegotiate his contract; he is due to make $10.5 million in 2014. If he is not traded, he will most likely be released. In that case, it is even less likely that he signs with the Patriots. Somebody like the Cleveland Browns or Oakland Raiders will offer him a massive contract. (Last time I said the Patriots would not win a bidding war was when the Bucs were shopping Revis. Maybe whatever I write about, the opposite happens.) Jackson would be dangerous in New England with Brady as his quarterback. However, is he worth trading a third round pick for and paying him over $10 million? I do not think so. I would love to see that Patriots make the move, but I will not be disappointed when they do not. Instead of Jackson, they could sign somebody like Kenny Britt, who has great potential, but no head on his shoulders, and go with the guys they have now. Overall, I think everybody in New England is pleasantly surprised with the offseason the Patriots have had. If the Patriots stopped after they signed Revis, fans would still be happy. They have finally decided to go for it, instead of being complacent with winning the weak AFC East. To sum the Patriots’ offseason up in three words, I would like to quote Agnes from Despicable Me 2…I’M SO HAPPY!!!!! The New England Patriots have yet again underwhelmed fans. Going into free agency, word was that the Patriots had offered wide receiver Julian Edelman a contract and wanted an answer before free agency started. They were also the favorite to land cornerback Aqib Talib. If they brought both of those players back, it would be a good start to free agency. Yes, they would still need to do more; however, they would have brought back their two key free agents and could build from there.
4:00 on Tuesday came and Julian Edelman had turned down the Patriots offer after his agent said that they did not believe it was a fair offer. In reality, Edelman’s camp was probably right. I doubt it was fair. Edelman can still re-sign with the Patriots, but I would be surprised, at this point, if he does come back. I expect that Texans, Ravens, and perhaps even the Colts to be interested in him. If the Seahawks lose Golden Tate, they could even contact Edelman. Talib is a different story. They had the chance last year to lock him up long-term. The market for corners before the 2013 season was nothing like it is right now; they could have signed Talib for very affordable money. They did not. He had a great season, despite missing games due to injury. They could have franchised him to make sure that their best defensive player stayed under their control for at least one more year. They did not. They were the favorite to sign Talib at the beginning of free agency, yet they did not even offer him a contract. Throughout most of the day, it was said that Talib had “no standing offers.” I believe it. The Patriots knew the market that was set by cornerbacks Sam Shields and Brett Grimes, yet did not offer it. Enter the Denver Broncos. Denver signed Talib for a whopping $57 million over six years. I did not expect that Patriots to make such an offer to Talib. I do not expect Talib to make it through the six years, but I can guarantee that neither do the Broncos. They only signed him for six years so they could guarantee they got him and made the team better for the present so Peyton Manning can win. Now that Talib is gone, the Patriots must act. They must make a push for Tampa Bay Buccaneers superstar Darrelle Revis. Even if they get Revis, they still have a lot to do. The Broncos have drastically improved their defense and even if they lose receiver Eric Decker, they still have a dynamic offense. They MUST make a push to trade for Revis. If they pursue him after he is cut, they will not get him. They cannot and will not win a bidding war. In addition to Revis, they must go out and find a defensive end, preferably Jared Allen. They must offer Julian Edelman a legitimate deal. It would be cruel to, not only not build a championship team for Tom Brady, but to take away his top receiver two consecutive years. If they also bring in Brandon LaFell as an outside receiver, that would be great, but he cannot take the place of Edelman. It must be LaFell AND Edelman; not LaFell INSTEAD of Edelman. I know that free agency has just started, but they will not make a big splash. They never do. They are content just being in chase. They would prefer to be in the AFC Championship for three straight years and not win a Super Bowl than to win a Super Bowl and have a mediocre season following the win, like the Baltimore Ravens did. However, John Elway and the Broncos are going for a Super Bowl. They are making the most of Peyton Manning’s final seasons. The New England Patriots are too content just going to the AFC Championship game; they are wasting Tom Brady. Catcher: Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals
Wilson Ramos could be one of the best fantasy baseball catchers in baseball. Not only are very few worthy of being taken ahead of him, but they are being taken extremely early. Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are going to be the top two catchers taken and while they are very good, the drop off from them to Ramos is not that great to have 12-rounds separating the catchers. Ramos will hit for decent average with good power numbers for a catcher. First Base: Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals Matt Adams will hit 30 home runs. He will also drop to around the 12-14th round. Adams could be your starting first baseman, that is how good of a season he will have. My guess is he will be drafted as a utility player, but will play like an early round pick. If you're in a keeper/dynasty league, Adams is a great pickup because you will not find him this late next year. Second Base: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins Dozier hit 18 home runs last year. I do not expect him to hit more than that in 2014; however, I expect his average to be a little better. Dozier was a .298 hitter in the minor leagues and, while you should not put much stock in Spring Training, he is hitting .316 (6-19) so far. Plus, he can steal 15 bases. At a very weak position, Dozier could be a good late option if you miss out on the likes of Cano, Pedroia, and Kipnis. Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves Simmons hit under .250 in 2013. He will hit closer to .270 in 2014. The home runs are real; he will hit between 15-20 home runs. Simmons is known for his defensive brilliance; however, he will emerge as a true offensive shortstop this year as well. Third Base: Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox Middlebrooks struggled so badly in 2013 that he was sent down to the minor leagues. Pre All-Star Game, Middlebrooks hit only .192. Post All-Star break, post minor league stint, he hit .276. If Middlebrooks hits anywhere over .270, the Red Sox and fantasy owners should be thrilled. He is a power hitter. He has 30-40 home run potential. The average is the only thing that could keep him from succeeding, but if he continues his second half, he will be just fine. Outfield: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers Kemp went in the seventh round of my draft. It was not so long ago that he was a first round pick, and the Dodgers' lineup was not as good at that point. If Kemp stays healthy, I see no reason he will not return to close to his 2011 MVP runner-up season form. Starting Pitcher: Jered Weaver Weaver is only one year removed from a 20-win season. He was my preseason pick for 2013 Cy Young. He missed a great deal of time due to injuries, but still posted a 3.27 ERA. The fact that he is going as late as he is in drafts is absurd. He is still only 31 years old and should have a great season. Relief Pitcher: Tommy Hunter, Baltimore Orioles It is tough to predict who will be a sleeper or bust in the closer department. It is such an up-and-down, unpredictable position. Hunter is on a good team, but there is not much competition to take the closer spot. It should be his unless he struggles mightily. After a long, cold, snowy winter, baseball season cannot come fast enough. And with baseball season, comes fantasy baseball. While we all know that Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are going to be the first two picks of every fantasy baseball draft this year, the rest of the draft order is up in the air. I participated in a 10-team mock draft. The names of the other participants are not available, so in place of their names, I have inserted some of the names from JK Rowling's Harry Potter series. Plus, having my name mentioned with all of these characters makes it look as though I am just another Hogwarts student -- something I dream of every night. I have posted comments on each of my picks, along with some feedback on certain picks within this 22-round mock draft. The positions are as follows: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 5 bench. Round 1
The reigning NL-MVP provides numbers across the board. Hitting over .300, McCutchen is also good for 20-30 home runs and stolen bases as well as 85-100 runs and RBIs. It does not get much more well-rounded than that. (Except for Mike Trout...) Round 2
This pick was between Pedroia and Bryce Harper. It came down to who was more likely to be available in the third round (Harper) and how big the drop-off is at each position. The second baseman was the clear choice after that. Now that he is healthy, expect some more power this year. Round 3
Again, a debate between two players, in this case Wright and Longoria. Having gone well-rounded players who hit for average in the first two rounds, I decided to continue the trend and look for some more power in later rounds. Round 4
The power I was looking for sandwiched my pick. Stanton was my first choice but after he was gone, it made sense to go after the best catcher available. Round 5
Again, I went with an all-around good player in Gonzalez. Jose Bautista in the fifth round is excellent value. Bautista was a first round pick last year and if he stays healthy, could be a steal for Albus Dumbledore. How wise he is, indeed. Best Pick: Jose Bautista Round 6
I once again saw my guy taken the pick before mine. Anyways, it seemed like a good time to start building my pitching staff. I cannot justify taking a closer in the sixth round. Not worth it for essentially one category (saves). Best Pick: Ben Zobrist Round 7
With no players I really loved, I continued to build up the rotation with the AL ERA leader of 2013. Best Pick: Matt Kemp - If Kemp, like Bautista, can stay healthy, this is an absolute steal. Round 8
Wil Myers may not put up the average he did last year, but he should put up good power numbers. Best Pick: Cole Hamels - He is bound to bounce back. Round 9
Carlos Beltran hit 24 home runs last season. While he is going to be 36 years old, he is playing in a ballpark that is the size of a little league field. Best Pick: Carlos Beltran Round 10
Maybe there are no superstar pitchers on Team Pericolo, but there are now three excellent starters all on good teams, something that is vital for the "wins" category. Best Pick: Manny Machado - He will return from his injury as good as new. Expect him to hit around .300, 20 home runs, and hover around 90 runs and 75 RBIs. Round 11
Jered Weaver was my Cy Young prediction for 2013. Injury has pushed him all the way back to the 11th round. Great value. Best Picks: Jered Weaver and Gerrit Cole Round 12
I am shocked to see a closer on my roster this early. However, there was nobody I loved here, so figured it was a good time to grab an elite closer. Best Pick: Matt Moore - Moore showed us what he is made of last year going 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA. Round 13
Julio Teheran is a young pitcher with great upside on a very good team. The Braves locking him up through 2019 shows how good they believe he can be. Best Pick: Matt Adams - He shows great power potential. 30+ home runs assuming he gets every day starts at first (and Allen Craig moving to OF full-time). Round 14
Michael Wacha showed the world that he has nearly un-hittable stuff during the playoffs. Best Picks: Michael Wacha and CC Sabathia - Sabathia is in better shape than he has been in years. He will bounce back. Round 15
Johnson is exactly the guy I had my eyes on from the start of the draft. He may not give you strikeouts, but he gets a ton of saves, and should continue to on a good Oakland A's team. Round 16
I drafted Bogaerts to be my SS. Since I missed out on Zobrist, I decided to wait for my SS. It came down to Bogaerts and Simmons. While Xander does not yet have SS eligibility, he will gain it very quickly and take over my starting SS job. Biggest Question Mark: Jose Abreu - How will the Cuban rookie adapt to MLB? Most likely a lot of power and low average, but he could surprise us with his average. Round 17
I took a chance with this pick. Hamilton, if he gets on base, will be a monster on the base paths. However, it really is if he gets on base. Biggest Question Marks: Hamilton and Will Middlebrooks - While both are question marks, at least Harry Potter has Middlebrooks on his bench; Hamilton will open the season in my starting lineup. Round 18
This pick came down to two pitchers who are aces when healthy, but cannot seem to stay on the field. Flipped a coin and ended up with Cueto. Best Picks: Johnny Cueto and Clay Buchholz - These guys have exceptional stuff and are aces. Why not take a chance on them in the 18th round? Biggest Question Marks: Johnny Cueto and Clay Buchholz Round 19
I wanted Mark Teixeira. Best Pick: Mark Teixeira Round 20
Rollins is definitely on the back nine; he just finished up the 17th hole. However, he is a solid player to insert in as my SS while Bogaerts gains eligibility. At that point, Rollins may no longer have a spot on the roster. Round 21
Stacking your bench with starters is the way to go. If Burnett can give me a 3.30 ERA and 200+ K's I would be ecstatic. Best Pick: Evan Gattis - Just as I waited until the final rounds to take a SS, Remus Lupin waited until the second-to-last round to find his catcher, and he got a pretty good one. Round 22
I think Archer in the last round is a steal. I would have been prepared to take him a few rounds earlier. I put together what I believe to be a championship team. The lineup is very balanced, but I also took a few chances on young guys such as Xander Bogaerts and Billy Hamilton. Even if the young players go through rough patches, there are enough proven veterans who can carry the team. As for the pitching, every guy on this staff, with the exception of Phillies' starter AJ Burnett, is on a playoff team.
Looking at the other teams, Severus Snape seems to have one of the better teams. Goldschmidt and Beltre in the first two rounds are as good as any first two picks that you are going to get, and getting Puig in the fourth round is a round later than I projected him. Despite taking a closer far earlier than I ever would, Lord Voldemort's team may be one of the best in this league. In addition to a strong infield, The Dark Lord also has excellent pitching, including the best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. With value picks of Matt Kemp (7) and CC Sabathia (14), if the man formerly known as Tom Riddle sees these two back to form, he could be holding the championship trophy this year. One has to wonder if any dark magic was involved, seeing he drafted such a good team. You can view the full rosters for each team rosters here. |
SAMUEL PERICOLOSam is a graduate of Assumption College where he studied History, Marketing, and Political Science and was a Co-Producer on a weekly sports talk television show. Archives
March 2018
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